TO: Supporters and Interested Parties
FROM: Russ Schriefer, Chief Strategist for Hogan for Maryland
DATE: November 14, 2024
RE: Post-Election Analysis
From the moment he entered the race for U.S. Senate, Governor Hogan publicly stated that he was an underdog. After Vermont, Maryland was the worst state for President Trump this year. Despite previously winning two gubernatorial races, Governor Hogan knew winning crossover votes in a federal election in a presidential year would be far more challenging. This environment became even more difficult in July when President Biden dropped out of the race, creating a surge of Democratic fundraising and enthusiasm that benefited the Alsobrooks campaign.
Despite coming up short, Governor Hogan won unprecedented numbers of split ticket voters and consolidated Republican support in Maryland — even in the most difficult environment.
- Outperforming Top of Ticket: Governor Hogan outperformed the top of the ticket by more than any other statewide candidate, Republican or Democrat, in America. This includes incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Nebraska Independent Dan Osborn. Governor Hogan expanded the tent and brought voters to the polls. Maryland was the only competitive Senate race in the country where more voters cast their ballots for senate than president.
- Best Performance Since 1980: Governor Hogan came the closest to winning a Senate seat as a Republican in Maryland since 1980. As returns continue to be counted, we expect that Governor Hogan will receive more votes than he did in 2018.
- Sustained Popularity: Despite tens of millions of dollars of attack ads, Governor Hogan’s image remains overwhelmingly popular in Maryland. In late October, our polling showed Governor Hogan held a 61% favorable rating. Meanwhile, despite lower name recognition, Alsobrooks had a higher unfavorability rating than Governor Hogan.
- Control of The Senate: This race was decided based on national factors and a false narrative driven by media coverage. Republicans were always nearly guaranteed to control the Senate without Maryland. However, according to our internal polling, nearly 80% of those voting for Alsobrooks did so for the reason of maintaining Democratic control of the Senate. Our polling also showed that this message had already sunk in by early June — suggesting media coverage about Senate control played a bigger role than paid advertising in shaping voter perception.
- Expanding Donor Base: Governor Hogan successfully grew the fundraising pie, attracting thousands of politically diverse donors who were uniquely attracted to his message and unlikely to give to other races. Meanwhile, the Alsobrooks campaign largely sucked up resources from other races without attracting new donors.
